2 top 5 teams against the spread. I think Washington is playing well enough currently to cover 8.5. Lions win for sure. I think crowd noise will be a lot for Daniels but they are the number 1 no huddle offense in NFL by far (60%) which will help some. Daniels is the most blitzed QB in NFL (39%) and Lions blitz a ton (38% - 6th). They only generate pressure 39% of the time when they blitz however (22nd). Daniels does very well when blitzed - 12 TD to 3 INT on the season when blitzed. O/U is at 55.5. Lions have gone over in 4 out of their last 5 games. Washington has gone over 11 times this season. It’s a lot of points and the most for a game Washington has played in this season but I would lean taking the over

We think the Bucs will cover despite it being quite a large spread. Would certainly be more enthusiastic if it were -13 Bucs. The Saints have been dreadful the last few weeks with Rattler. They have the 2nd fewest points per game for the last three weeks. Less than 10 PPG, only the Browns are worse. Bucs are playing really well and are playing to win the division. If Mike Evans has 5+ receptions for 85+ yards, the $3m incentive in his contract comes through. Baker Mayfield gets and additional $500k if he finishes in the top 10 for yards per attempt (currently 8th). So the Bucs have a lot to play for.

We're going with the Packers. They have a ton of good answers to the Vikings defense. Both teams are playing really, so it'll be close, but on this one the road team will cover.

No special insight here. Bears are a mess and the Seahawks need the game desperately. We thought the spread would be larger, -6 for the Seahawks or something like that, but -4 seems right / doable. Our call is for the Seahawks to cover.

It's a big number but without Pickens, Fields and Elliot we think the Ravens can put it on the Steelers.At home it'll be a payback game from earlier this year - the Ravens have lost four straight against the Steelers.

We hate this. It's too close to call. We're a little surprised that the Chargers are favored, but can understand it is as well with the Chargers being at home. Both teams are fantastic ATS. At -2.5 it's too close to call and we're not going to be putting any money or call on the game. Hope it's a good one.

We like Philly to win at home. 5.5 is a lot, and Tomlin is a bit of a cover machine with Steelers 10/3 ATS. Without Pickens the Steelers offense is underwhelming especially against Fangio D that is playing really well. We think both offenses will struggle that is why we are picking the under from Draft Kings.

Will add rationalization later. Super late to this. We do think the 49ers will cover. Bosa is back. Rams are on a short week after an emotional win. Rams defence being on the field that long v the Bills should scare people in a short week. Hard to play that great back to back. It's one hour before kickoff.

with 77% of bets on Bills -3.5 they're the crowd favourite. Bills are 8-4 ATS (6-1 the last 7 and 7-2 as favourite). The rams are 5-7 ATS. Rams are in a dog fight for the NFC west, whereas the Bills have already clinched the division. We don't think that equals complacency as they still have a ton to play and want to clinch that number 1 spot. Rams have struggled earlier this season with injuries to Kupp and Nacua and their OL, but they're healthy enough today to make it a game. There are still major question marks in secondary and it will be key to see if they can get pressure on Allen. If they can't get Allen uncomfortable it'll be a long day for the Rams. The Bills OL is seriously underrated giving up the fewest sacks in the NFL. This verse the rookie edge for the Rams will be a key matchup to watch. We think the Rams will keep it close today and lose by 3 or less, so they will cover today at home.

Heading into the game Detroit has 13 players on the IR. No other NFL team has more than 7. That said we like the Lions -3 at home. With Jaire Alexander and Romeo Doubs out an GB giving up 70%+ completions on defense, plus with the home crowd, the Lions will cover. GB is definitely playing better lately compared to their first match up, Detroit is too much of a force right now. The Lions are 9-3 ATS, tied for second in the NFL. GB is middle of the pack at 6-6.

It's gotta be the Steelers. Browns are 3-7 ATS in their past ten games against Pittsburgh and 1-4 at home this season. Pittsburgh are the top ATS team this season tied with Detroit at 8-2 and have covered 5 straight games coming into this one. Russell Wilson is 3-0 in his career vs Browns including a 29-12 win last year as the Broncos QB. Weather will be an issue tonight, too and this will impact the Browns run game. Consensus is given Pittsburgh's D and OL being so strong, and with J Winston being the gift that keeps on giving we think the Steelers will cover. For O/U, six games have had a total below 37 points this season and the Steelers were a part of 3 of those.

6 is a lot of points, however, despite the Bears stinking pretty bad we think they're gonna take it and cover at +6. Yes, GB is coming off a bye, but our thesis is simple: when a team fires a coach they're gonna play their best. We think this is true with the Bears new OC, Brown. We're not sold on the Packers defense and think the Bears have the quiet edge.

Eagles are humming right now. Wish the spread were 3, but we still think they'll cover. Washington took a slight step backwards last few games and Allen being out for the season is big. Also, Washington's secondary will be worrying a lot about A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. ATS the Eagles are 5-4 (0-3) at home. 4 out of 9 games haver gone over the O/U. The Commanders 7-2-1 (3-1-1 away). 7 out of 10 games have gone over.

Punching this one in a little late. We're very confident the 49ers will cover at -6.5. The Bucks are on a short week off and coming off an emotional loss in prime time. the 49ers are healthy and poised to go on a playoff run. Their momentum has them taking this with ease.

Ravens favored by 6 on DK, 5.5 Fan Duel. Bengals ATS (5-4) (4-0 on road). Ravens ATS (5-3-1) (2-1-1 at home). O/U 52.5. Bengals 6-3 overs. Ravens 8-1 overs. Joe Burrow is 12-3 ATS as an underdog of at least 3 points. The Ravens have run for 100 yards in 42 straight games (1 shy of NFL record). Under Harbaugh, the Ravens are 21-3 in prime time home games (8-0 on TNF). Lamar playing at extremely high level. 145.6 passer rating over last 3 weeks is tops in the NFL. Ravens top red zone TD offense at 74%. Bengals 6th worst RZ defense (68%). Ravens 5th best 3rd down offense (46%) and Bengals 7th worst 3rd down defense (45%). Ravens 31.4 PPG (2nd) and Bengals 25.2 PPG allowed (25th). Ravens are the NFL’s top rush offense - 191.9 rush YPG, 5.9 YPA and 18% explosive run pct (4th) while the Bengals have done a good job vs the run this season - 4.2 rush YPA allowed (6th) and 10% explosive run rate allowed (4th). Will Henry be able to get going early here? That will be key. Ravens allow the 4th lowest sack pct (4.8%) and the Bengals are really struggling to bring down the QB with a 5.4% sack rate (29th). Their pass rush is essentially just Hendrickson who has 11 of the team’s 17 sacks. The Bengals really struggle establishing the run - 94.2 rush YPG (27th), 4.1 YPA (24th) and will be facing the top run defense - 75.7 rush YPG, 3.4 YPA, and 6% explosive run pct allowed. The Bengals do a great job in 3rd down - 47% (3rd) and in the red zone 69% (2nd). The Ravens are the 3rd worst 3rd down defense (46%) and ranked 16th in RZ defense (55%). The Ravens defense really struggles against the pass allowing the most pass YPG (280.9), 7.9 pass YPA (28th), and a 19% explosive pass pct (31st). The Bengals will move the ball in the pass game as Burrow is one of the most accurate throwers in the game - 70% completion rate (4th) and 108 passer rating (5th). Cincy has been throwing to TE a ton this season. They have the 3rd most receptions by TE in NFL (62) while the Ravens have allowed 52 catches by TE (5th most). Promising Bengals rookie TE Erick All (20 rec) tore his ACL last week but they still have Gesicki (30 rec), Sample (8 rec) and Hudson (4 rec). Last week Burrow threw to his TE 15 times (2nd most). They had 13 rec (2nd) for 152 yards (1st) and 3 TD (1st). The Ravens throw to the TE a ton as well - 55 rec (6th) and lead the league with 8 receiving TD from the TE position. Number 2 TE Isaiah Likely will be out for this game with an injury however which is a big loss (24 rec, 271 yards, 3 TD). Ja’Marr Chase had his biggest game of the season in week 5 vs the Ravens - 10 rec, 193 yards and 2 TD. Ravens will focus on shutting him down with Tee Higgins doubtful to play. If the Bengals don’t have starting left tackle Orlando Brown who is questionable with a leg injury, it could get ugly for Burrow who was sacked 3 times in their first meeting. The Ravens traded for veteran CB Tre’Davious White but he won’t make his debut for them tonight on the short week. The Bengals need this game more than the ravens as they look to get to .500 and into the playoff race. They haven’t beaten any good team yet this year however - LV (2-7), CLV (2-7), CAR (2-7) and NYG (2-7). The Ravens wins have been much more impressive and with the offense running on all cylinders I expect them to win and cover 5.5 (fan duel) at home improving their prime time record under Harbaugh. The o/u at 52.5 is the highest of any TNF game this season. The o/u is 4-4 this season on TNF. Even though both teams have strong over numbers this season, neither has seen this number in a game this season. I’m taking the under with some key position player injuries on a short week.

We're split and don't feel like we can make a call on this one. We're tempted to call the Packers covering at +2.5. We like them at home and with the serious weather advantage keeping things very close. Calling for rain, this would be Detroit's first outside game of the year and we think they may be a little soft. That said, Detroit is on a 6 game winning streak and many knowledgable people are all in on Goff. Lots of money on Detroit and they may be right because of the OL and RB matchup in the passing game.

This one is the hardest yet. How is it 6-2 Texans are not the favoured team against a 2-6 NY Jets? We were tempted not to call it and just explain our reasons for staying clear of this one, but with gritted teeth we think the Jets will cover. It was hard not to pick the Texans given they are the better team, but with Diggs injured and Nico Collin's still not back, that's rough. Texans OL has issues on the interior, and we expect a ton of pressure from Anderson and Hunter. With their backs against the wall, and at home with a lot of pressure off due to the Texans 1 and 2 WR injured, we think the Jets will play pretty free tonight and likely win while covering the spread. The Jets kicker is an open question...

LAR vs MIN TNF Week 8 Vikings HC O’connel is from the McVay tree Vikings WR big advantage over Rams secondary. Rams haven’t been able to replace all their secondary departures over the years with quality players. Jefferson, Addison and Nailor should eat. Great MIN OT - maybe best combo in league with Darrisaw and O’Neill. RG Ingram is a liability - most pressures allowed among guards. Risner will he replace him when healthy or does he slide back in at left guard for Brandel? Rams defensive front Edge Verse - 27 pressures (12th) Edge Byron Young - 19 (31st) DT Kobie Turner - 23 pressures (4th) Dt Fiske - 17 pressures (16th) Edge Hoecht - 6 (93rd) Vikings front Greenard has 38 pressures, the 3rd most among all edge defenders Van Ginkel - 18 pressures (33rd) Aaron Jones Vikings do it all back is averaging 5.2 yards per attempt. Also has 20 catches. Rams can’t stop the run. Bottom 10 pf league there. There’s a chance that MIN TE Hockenson makes his season debut coming off serious knee injury last year. Would be huge as he’s a top 5-10 TE in NFL. Rams: is Kupp healthy 100%? (Ankle) Too many injuries to overcome in WR room otherwise. This will likely be his first game back since week 2. Will keep Rams in game if he and Stafford can get it going. Small chance Nacua plays. Most likely does not. Hasn’t played since week 1 Troy Reeder Rams LB signal caller out. Big loss 3rd on defense in tackles. MIN Murphy 2nd most targeted CB in NFL - 73% rec pct, 11.3 Y/REC, 2 TD, 1 int, 2 PBU, 102.3 passer rating against and zero penalties MIN Metellus 3rd most targeted safety - 79% rec pct, 9.1 Y/REC, 0 TD, 1 int, 2 pbu, 82.5 passer rating, 1 penalty Secondary not stellar but much improved from a year ago. Vikings most interceptions in NFL (11). They had 11 total the whole season in 2023. Rams shouldn’t be able to run against Vikings front (number 2 rush defense) while Rams have a bottom 10 run game. Rams RB Williams tied for most rushing TD in NFL (8). The Vikings have allowed the fewest rushing TD this season (3) Vikings number 1 blitz team (52%) 38% pressure pct (9th) Stafford has the lowest passer rating in NFL when under pressure (41.7) Rams blitz 36% (11th) and get pressure 38% (8th) Darnold has the 4th highest NFL passer rating under pressure (95.6) Vikings 6-1 against the spread Rams 2-4 against the spread Look for Vikings to cover -3 on the road coming off their first loss of the season - a tough division battle vs one of best teams in league, the Lions Rams forced 4 turnovers against the lowly Raiders last week at home and only won by 5 points facing a backup QB and no Davante Adams

TNF Week 7 NO vs DEN ⁃ 2 rookie QBs squaring off - Nix with 6 games under his belt and Rattler coming off his first start in the place of the injured Derek Carr. ⁃ Nix thru 6 games: 1,082 yards (5.5 per att.), 61% completion, 5 TD, 5 int, 9 sack, 44 QBR. 37 rushes for 180 yards (4.9 per) 3 TD ⁃ Nix struggled for the first 3 quarters in week 6 vs the Chargers completing just 4 passes on 14 attempts for 27 yards (1.9 YPA), an int and 2 sacks. He figured it out in the 4th quarter however, going 15/19 for 189 yards (9.9 YPA) and 2 TD. The Broncos were held to zero points in the first 3 quarters and put up 16 in the 4th to nearly get the comeback win. ⁃ It was the opposite story for Rattler in the first start of his NFL career. He had a strong first half performance: 11/17 (65%), 140 yards (8.2 YPA), 1 TD and 1 sack. The Saints led at the half 27-24 after getting down 17-0 early. They were completely dominated in the second half putting up no points and losing 51-27. Rattler’s 2nd half stat line was 11/23 (48%), 103 yards (4.5 YPA), 0 TD and 4 sacks. ⁃ Tampa Bay blitzed Rattler on 46% of dropbacks.m, the 4th highest rate in NFL week 6. Denver had the highest blitz rate in NFL week 6 (61%). Rattler completed just 33% of passes when blitzed last week (2.2 YPA) with 1 TD, 1 int and 3 sacks. ⁃ Nix threw his first int since week 2 last week. The Saints defense is 2nd in the NFL with 10 interceptions and has forced at least 1 turnover in every game so far this season. Nix has not lost a fumble this season. ⁃ New Orleans defense missed the most tackles in NFL last week (15). They’ve struggled the last 2 weeks giving up 1,094 yards (6.9 YPP allowed) and 59 first downs - both worst in NFL the last 2 weeks. ⁃ The Saints offense hasn’t run the ball well the last 2 weeks. Just 3.5 yards per attempt which is the 5th worst. They were at 4.3 per in the first 4 weeks of season (18th). This is important because they’ll likely need to lean on the run game more this week with their top pass catchers Chris Olave (23 rec) and Rashid Shaheed (20 rec) being out with injuries. TE/hybrid Taysom Hill will also likely be out again this week which hurts their ability to be creative and take some of the load off Rattler. Look for Kamara and tight ends Juwan Johnson/Foster Moreau to have a boatload of targets. ⁃ Broncos CB Patrick Surtain, the best player of either team, will be out this week with a concussion. That is a massive loss but might not cost them as big against the rookie QB and the top 2 WR being out. Denver’s defense ranks in the top 5 in total yards, pass yards, sack rate, and red zone defense. ⁃ Denver is 3-0 against the spread on the road this season. NO is 1-2 at home ATS. ⁃ Crowd noise will be tough for Denver and the rookie QB in a really tough environment to play in prime time. Sean Payton coming back to coach against his former team will be the big story line in this one. Drew Brees will be in the house and getting the crowd going at half time. ⁃ On paper this should be a Denver victory even without their star Surtain playing. The big question will be Nix’s ability to manage the crowd noise and pressure in a prime time road game. Rattler should struggle against a top 5 defense in his second start with limited weapons. I’ll take the Broncos to cover -2.5 on the road.

Andy Reid is tremendously good off the bye week: 21-4. SF is struggling with kicking having to sign another this week. KC will squeeze it out late.

Our postion is the spread is way too narrow. We expect SF to cover with ease.

Our position is the spread is way too thin. We expect the Lions to smash the Cowboys.